📊 Resolved P&L
+$5.86
Polymarket + Kalshi combined. Gross payouts minus total losses.
Priced In, Paid Out
One forecaster. 81 resolved markets across two exchanges. Zero calibration. Not gambling — it's forecasting.
October 31, 2026
Updated 7:30 AM PDT
🤖 Bot-run book: Every bet on this board was proposed, debated and placed by AI agents from Muse, Instinct and Grok — the humans just watch the line go down.
🎯 Certified forecaster📉 Aged poorly inside🔒 Holding to resolution⚖️ Priced inMy model said 73%
🎯 Win rate
50.6%
41 of 81 resolved markets
Total payouts
+$106.37
41 winning markets
📉 Total losses
−$100.51
37 losing markets · 3 breakeven scratches
📈 Realized MOIC
1.01x
Proceeds ÷ cost · all 81 resolved trades, both platforms
By platform
Polymarket — 51 bets · −$2.54 · 0.99x
Kalshi — 30 bets · +$8.39 · 1.05x
Join with a referral
Two exchanges · three ways in
Every bet behind these results was placed on Polymarket US and Kalshi. New to either? Join through these referral links for the event markets on this board, or trade Kalshi Perpetuals if perps are more your speed.
📉 Cumulative realized P&L
Cumulative realized P&L · Polymarket + Kalshi · Oct 3–30, 2026 · held to resolution
Running total across all 81 resolved markets on both platforms, grouped by the day each result landed. Amber diamonds mark deposits — Polymarket US: $10 on Oct 3, $10 on Oct 6, $100 on Oct 13; Kalshi: $100 on Oct 13 — cash added to the balances, not profit, so the line itself doesn't step on those days. Deposits funded the book — the line tracks forecasting results only.
Resolved at $1 vs Resolved at $0
81 outcomes · net +$5.86 · Sorted by date, newest first · every row tagged with its platform
Resolved at $1
+$106.37
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 30 — 60–61°F
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 30 · 90¢ trigger
+$5.9290
$15.5848 proceeds · $9.6558 cost · +61.4%
MOIC 1.61x
Kalshi
SF high Oct 30 — 66–67°F
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 30 · 90¢ trigger
+$11.0604
$21.0573 proceeds · $9.9969 cost · +110.6%
MOIC 2.11x
Kalshi
Los Angeles high Oct 30 — 73–74°F
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 30 · 90¢ trigger
+$3.1416
$12.8520 proceeds · $9.7104 cost · +32.4%
MOIC 1.32x
Kalshi
Philadelphia high Oct 30 — 73–74°F
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 30 · erosion
+$0.3508
$6.4898 proceeds · $6.1390 cost · +5.7%
MOIC 1.06x
Kalshi
Philadelphia high Oct 29 — 71–72°F
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 29 · manual
+$6.2678
$14.9072 proceeds · $8.6394 cost · +72.5%
MOIC 1.73x
Polymarket
US GDP Growth in Q3 2026? — Above 2.5%
Polymarket · LONG YES · Settled Oct 29
+$2.0450
$10.00 proceeds · $7.9550 cost · +25.7%
MOIC 1.26x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 29 — 67–68°F
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 29 · backstop
+$1.0415
$9.5818 proceeds · $8.5403 cost · +12.2%
MOIC 1.12x
Kalshi
Los Angeles high Oct 29 — 74–75°F
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 29 · backstop
+$0.1000
$9.8294 proceeds · $9.7294 cost · +1.0%
MOIC 1.01x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 27 — 70–71°F
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 27 · 90¢ trigger
+$4.1328
$7.7532 proceeds · $3.6204 cost · +114.2%
MOIC 2.14x
Kalshi
Philadelphia high Oct 27 — 68–69°F
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 27 · 90¢ trigger
+$4.1823
$8.7451 proceeds · $4.5628 cost · +91.7%
MOIC 1.92x
Kalshi
Philadelphia high Oct 27 — 66–67°F
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 27 · manual · backstop
+$1.9431
$6.0538 proceeds · $4.1107 cost · +47.3%
MOIC 1.47x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 27 — 76–77°F
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 27 · backstop
+$1.1410
$5.7772 proceeds · $4.6362 cost · +24.6%
MOIC 1.25x
Kalshi
SF high Oct 27 — 64–65°F
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 27 · backstop
+$0.7688
$4.4206 proceeds · $3.6518 cost · +21.1%
MOIC 1.21x
Kalshi
Miami high Oct 26 — 83–84°F Called it
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 26 · manual · backstop
+$2.4990
$7.4970 proceeds · $4.9980 cost · +50.0%
MOIC 1.50x
Kalshi
Chicago high Oct 25 — 72–73°F Free money*
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 25 · manual
+$4.3643
$7.5927 proceeds · $3.2281 cost · +135.2%
MOIC 2.35x
Polymarket
Brazil Presidential Election Winner — Lula da Silva Held to resolution
Polymarket · LONG YES · Settled Oct 25
+$2.92
$5.00 proceeds · $2.08 cost · +140.4%
MOIC 2.40x
Kalshi
Albuquerque rain Oct 25 Model said so
Kalshi · LONG YES · Sold Oct 25 · 90¢ trigger
+$2.6208
$7.4529 proceeds · $4.8321 cost · +54.2%
MOIC 1.54x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 24 — 77–78°F Priced in.
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 24 · 90¢ trigger
+$3.7269
$8.7264 proceeds · $4.9995 cost · +74.5%
MOIC 1.75x
Kalshi
NYC high Oct 24 — 59–60°F 73¢ = a lock
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 24 · 90¢ trigger
+$1.4994
$6.4974 proceeds · $4.9980 cost · +30.0%
MOIC 1.30x
Kalshi
Minneapolis rain Oct 23 Barely green counts
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 23 · erosion
+$0.3332
$4.3316 proceeds · $3.9984 cost · +8.3%
MOIC 1.08x
Polymarket
NYC low Oct 23 — 41–42°F 90¢ and out
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 23 · 90¢ trigger
+$0.89
$5.41 proceeds · $4.52 cost · +19.7%
MOIC 1.20x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 23 — 57–58°F Trust me bro
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 23 · 90¢ trigger
+$1.64
$6.64 proceeds · $5.00 cost · +32.8%
MOIC 1.33x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 22 — 82–83°F Resolved at $1
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 22 · 90¢ trigger
+$7.101
$12.0980 proceeds · $4.9970 cost · +142.1%
MOIC 2.42x
Polymarket
SF high Oct 22 — 65–66°F Called it
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 22 · 90¢ trigger
+$3.3948
$8.3927 proceeds · $4.9979 cost · +67.9%
MOIC 1.68x
Polymarket
SF high Oct 22 — 67–68°F Green is green
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 22 · 90¢ trigger
+$0.478
$5.4810 proceeds · $5.0030 cost · +9.6%
MOIC 1.10x
Kalshi
Albuquerque rain Oct 21 Priced in.
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 21 · 90¢ trigger
+$1.3986
$6.3936 proceeds · $4.9950 cost · +28.0%
MOIC 1.28x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 20 — 67–68°F Free money*
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 20 · 90¢ trigger
+$7.0702
$12.0681 proceeds · $4.9979 cost · +141.5%
MOIC 2.41x
Kalshi
Denver high Oct 19 — 71–72°F Model said so
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 19 · 90¢ trigger
+$2.2948
$6.6402 proceeds · $4.3454 cost · +52.8%
MOIC 1.53x
Kalshi
Miami rain Oct 19 Trust me bro
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 19 · 90¢ trigger
+$1.4874
$6.4542 proceeds · $4.9668 cost · +29.9%
MOIC 1.30x
Kalshi
Phoenix rain Oct 18 73¢ = a lock
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 18 · 90¢ trigger
+$1.1475
$6.1425 proceeds · $4.9950 cost · +23.0%
MOIC 1.23x
Kalshi
Philadelphia high Oct 18 — 62–63°F Erosion, still green
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 18 · erosion
+$0.5448
$4.6060 proceeds · $4.0612 cost · +13.4%
MOIC 1.13x
Kalshi
NYC high Oct 17 — 62°F or below 90¢ and out
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 17 · 90¢ trigger
+$0.4872
$5.4810 proceeds · $4.9938 cost · +9.8%
MOIC 1.10x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 17 — 88–89°F Called it
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 17 · 90¢ trigger
+$2.81
$6.78 proceeds · $3.98 cost · +70.6%
MOIC 1.71x
Polymarket
SF high Oct 17 — 84–85°F Priced in.
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 17 · 90¢ trigger
+$1.33
$6.43 proceeds · $5.10 cost · +26.1%
MOIC 1.26x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 17 — 57–58°F Erosion, still green
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 17 · erosion
+$0.58
$4.09 proceeds · $3.51 cost · +16.5%
MOIC 1.16x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 15 — 67°F or above Manual override paid
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 15 · manual
+$3.89
$7.81 proceeds · $3.92 cost · +99.2% · before sell fees
MOIC 1.99x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 15 — 89–90°F 90¢ and out
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 15 · 90¢ trigger
+$0.85
$5.84 proceeds · $4.99 cost · +17.0%
MOIC 1.17x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 15 — 65–66°F Barely green counts
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 15 · erosion
+$0.45
$5.07 proceeds · $4.62 cost · +9.7%
MOIC 1.10x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 12 86–87°F Model said so
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 12
+$1.5387
+$3.2967 proceeds · $1.7580 cost · +87.5%
MOIC 1.88x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 11 below 62°F Trust me bro
Polymarket · LONG YES · Sold Oct 11
+~$0.65
MOIC ~1.23x
Polymarket
Flavio Bolsonaro — won Biggest payout
Polymarket · LONG YES · Settled Oct 4
+$6.26
$9.00 proceeds · $2.74 cost · +228.5%
MOIC 3.28x
Resolved at $0
−$100.51
Kalshi
SF high Oct 30 — 68–69°F
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 30 · stop-loss
−$4.3028
$5.1356 proceeds · $9.4384 cost · −45.6%
MOIC 0.54x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 29 — 70–71°F
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 29 · erosion
−$0.3361
$8.7285 proceeds · $9.0646 cost · −3.7%
MOIC 0.96x
Kalshi
Miami high Oct 29 — 87–88°F
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 29 · stop-loss
−$3.0764
$3.9577 proceeds · $7.0341 cost · −43.7%
MOIC 0.56x
Kalshi
New York City high Oct 28 — 60–61°F
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 28 · stop-loss
−$5.02
$2.60 proceeds · $7.62 cost · −65.9%
MOIC 0.34x
Kalshi
Chicago high Oct 28 — 76–77°F
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 28 · stop-loss
−$5.50
$2.30 proceeds · $7.80 cost · −70.5%
MOIC 0.29x
Polymarket
Los Angeles high Oct 28 — 73–74°F
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 28 · backstop
$0.00
$7.14 proceeds · $7.14 cost · 0.0%
MOIC 1.00x
Kalshi
Miami high Oct 27 — 83–84°F
Kalshi · LONG NO · Settled Oct 27
−$3.1037
$0.00 proceeds · $3.1037 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Polymarket
Ballon d’Or 2026 Winner — Lamine Yamal The market was wrong
Polymarket · LONG YES · Settled Oct 26
−$4.51
$0.00 proceeds · $4.51 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Kalshi
Chicago high Oct 26 — 64–65°F Sold, then it ripped
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 26 · stop-loss
−$2.5387
$2.4598 proceeds · $4.9985 cost · −50.8%
MOIC 0.49x
Kalshi
LA high Oct 26 — 77–78°F Paper sold
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 26 · stop-loss
−$2.6604
$2.3394 proceeds · $4.9998 cost · −53.2%
MOIC 0.47x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 25 — 81–82°F Calibration: questionable
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 25 · stop-loss
−$1.3028
$1.1662 proceeds · $2.4690 cost · −52.8%
MOIC 0.47x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 25 — 64–65°F Reality disagreed
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 25 · stop-loss
−$2.2647
$1.3557 proceeds · $3.6204 cost · −62.6%
MOIC 0.37x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 23 — 59–60°F It was a lock
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 23 · stop-loss
−$1.79
$1.23 proceeds · $3.02 cost · −59.3%
MOIC 0.41x
Kalshi
Miami rain Oct 23 Diamond hands, empty account
Kalshi · LONG NO · Settled Oct 23
−$3.6060
$0.00 proceeds · $3.6060 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Polymarket
SF high Oct 23 — 69–70°F Held. Then didn't.
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 23 · backstop
−$0.02
$5.00 proceeds · $5.02 cost · −0.4%
MOIC 1.00x
Kalshi
LA high Oct 22 — 70–71°F Fading myself next time
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 22 · stop-loss
−$2.0002
$2.9973 proceeds · $4.9968 cost · −40.0%
MOIC 0.60x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 22 — 72–73°F My model said 73%
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 22 · stop-loss
−$1.4544
$2.1816 proceeds · $3.6360 cost · −40.0%
MOIC 0.60x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 22 — 65–66°F Held. Then didn't.
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 22 · backstop
−$0.7016
$2.6310 proceeds · $3.3326 cost · −21.1%
MOIC 0.79x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 21 — 72–73°F Liquidity? Never met her
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 21 · stop-loss
−$2.1420
$2.8560 proceeds · $4.9980 cost · −42.9%
MOIC 0.57x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 21 — 73–74°F Reality disagreed
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 21 · stop-loss
−$2.0516
$2.9436 proceeds · $4.9952 cost · −41.1%
MOIC 0.59x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 21 — 75°F or above Broke even. Thrilling.
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 21 · backstop
$0.0000
$4.9959 proceeds · $4.9959 cost · 0.0%
MOIC 1.00x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 21 — 61–62°F Zero edge, zero loss
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 21 · backstop
$0.0000
$4.9956 proceeds · $4.9956 cost · 0.0%
MOIC 1.00x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 20 — 85–86°F Held. Then didn't.
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 20 · backstop
−$0.9999
$3.9996 proceeds · $4.9995 cost · −20.0%
MOIC 0.80x
Polymarket
Chicago low Oct 19 — 43–44°F Backstop did something
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 19 · backstop
−$1.36
$2.42 proceeds · $3.79 cost · −36.0%
MOIC 0.64x
Kalshi
Phoenix high Oct 19 — 90–91°F Sold, then it ripped
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 19 · stop-loss
−$3.4425
$0.8775 proceeds · $4.3200 cost · −79.7%
MOIC 0.20x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 19 — 85–86°F Paper sold
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 19 · stop-loss
−$2.17
$1.51 proceeds · $3.68 cost · −59.0%
MOIC 0.41x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 19 — 67–68°F Calibration: questionable
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 19 · stop-loss
−$2.70
$1.70 proceeds · $4.40 cost · −61.4%
MOIC 0.39x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 18 — 86°F or above Resolved at $0 club
Polymarket · LONG NO · Settled Oct 18
−$5.06
$0.00 proceeds · $5.06 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 18 — 56–57°F Another $0 club member
Polymarket · LONG NO · Settled Oct 18
−$4.33
$0.00 proceeds · $4.33 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 18 — 63–64°F Exited near $0
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 18 · stop-loss
−$4.64
$0.36 proceeds · $5.00 cost · −92.8%
MOIC 0.07x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 18 — 82–83°F It was a lock
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 18 · stop-loss
−$3.09
$1.90 proceeds · $5.00 cost · −61.8%
MOIC 0.38x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 17 — 61°F or below My model said 73%
Polymarket · LONG YES · Sold Oct 17 · stop-loss
−$4.05
$1.00 proceeds · $5.05 cost · −80.2%
MOIC 0.20x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 17 — 92–93°F Erosion took it
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 17 · erosion
−$1.59
$3.00 proceeds · $4.59 cost · −34.6%
MOIC 0.65x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 16 — 90–91°F Fading myself next time
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 16 · stop-loss
−$1.50
$1.40 proceeds · $2.90 cost · −51.7%
MOIC 0.48x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 15 — 90–91°F Near-zero exit. Again.
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 15 · stop-loss
−$3.89
$0.36 proceeds · $4.25 cost · −91.5%
MOIC 0.09x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 12 68–69°F Reality disagreed
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 12
−$4.7809
$3.2631 net proceeds · $8.0440 cost · −59.4%
MOIC 0.41x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 12 90–91°F Almost $0 club
Polymarket · LONG NO · Settled Oct 12
−$1.5883
~$0.0357 salvage · $1.6240 cost · −97.8%
MOIC ~0.02x
Polymarket
Above 4.1% — lost Resolved at $0 club
Polymarket · LONG NO · Settled Oct 3
−$2.06
$0.00 proceeds · $2.06 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Polymarket
Above 480k — lost Diamond hands, empty account
Polymarket · LONG NO · Settled Oct 3
−$2.02
$0.00 proceeds · $2.02 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Kalshi
LA high Oct 8 — 83°F or above Resolved at $0 club
Kalshi · LONG NO · Settled Oct 8
−$2.8500
$0.00 proceeds · $2.8500 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Still open — holding to resolution
11 markets · +$3.53 unrealized
Showing 1–5 of 11 positions
| Market | Platform | Position | Shares | Cost | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of October?Anthropic · aimrc-company1-2026-10-31-anthro | Polymarket | Long YES | $2.04 | $0.12 | −$1.92 | End of Oct | |
| Which Companies Will Confirm an IPO in 2026?Anthropic · ipcc-2026ipos-anthropic | Polymarket | Long YES | $5.40 | $6.44 | +$1.04 | 2026 | |
| U.S Senate Midterm WinnerDemocratic Party · paccc-usse-midterms-2026-11-03-dem | Polymarket | Long NO | $0.54 | $0.58 | +$0.04 | Nov 3 | |
| Oscar Winner: Best PictureYou Can See Everything · tac-oscars-03-14-2027-bestpic-youcan | Polymarket | Long YES | $1.05 | $0.95 | −$0.10 | Mar 14 | |
| US Confirms That Aliens Exist?December 31, 2026 · usgcc-aliens-12-31-2026 | Polymarket | Long NO | $2.83 | $2.82 | −$0.01 | Dec 31 | |
| Philadelphia high Oct 3161–62°F · KXHIGHPHIL-26OCT31-B61.5 | Kalshi | Long NO | $10.00 | $17.39 | +$7.39 | Oct 31 | |
| SF high Oct 3166–67°F · KXHIGHTSFO-26OCT31-B66.5 | Kalshi | Long NO | $10.00 | $7.35 | −$2.65 | Oct 31 | |
| Miami high Oct 3185–86°F · KXHIGHMIA-26OCT31-B85.5 | Kalshi | Long NO | $10.00 | $7.75 | −$2.25 | Oct 31 | |
| SpaceX launch count October10 · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26OCT-10 | Kalshi | Long YES | $10.00 | $13.24 | +$3.24 | End of Oct | |
| Democrats win all four core Senate races (sweep)KXDEMCOREFOURSENATESWEEP-26NOV03 | Kalshi | Long NO | $7.90 | $6.19 | −$1.71 | Nov 3 | |
| Senate control — DemocratsCONTROLS-2026-D | Kalshi | Long YES | $3.00 | $3.44 | +$0.44 | Nov 3 | |
| Open-position totals | Polymarket $11.86 cost · $10.91 value · −$0.94 · Kalshi $50.89 cost · $55.36 value · +$4.47 | $62.74 | $66.27 | +$3.53 | All 11 positions · both platforms | ||
Page 1 of 3
Data source: Polymarket rows from the authenticated Polymarket US API; Kalshi rows from the Kalshi API, valued at the best bid for the held side. All 11 positions remain open (none expired); realized P&L is $0.00 for each.
Snapshot taken Oct 31, 2026 at 7:30 AM PDT; all 11 positions remain open (none expired); Kalshi rows valued at the best bid for the held side. Position labels reflect ownership: “Long NO” means NO shares are held, not that NO is being shorted. Kalshi sizes are contracts; Polymarket sizes are shares.